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Macario Namie, VP Marketing, Jasper Wireless

M2M predictions for 2013 and beyond: Macario Namie, Jasper Wireless

Posted By TelecomTV One , 20 December 2012 | 1 Comments | (1)
Tags: m2m.iot LTE Connected car SIM operator alliances

What's going to happen in M2M over the next few years? Macario Namie, VP Marketing, Jasper Wireless gives us his view.

Connected car is the one to watch

When thinking about the verticals that will take off in the next year, the connected car has massive potential volume as the top 16 car manufactures alone ship 63 million cars per year. 2013 will see the first connected cars hit the market. Although the first connected cars will start to ship in 2013, there is still much more work to be done across all the OEMs. We expect to see nearly every automobile manufacturer’s connected car strategies to be finalised in 2013, although it will be a few years until deployment strategies are fully realised.

 
Operator alliances will continue and will grow increasingly sophisticated
Standardised global service with local support is the Holy Grail in M2M. The M2M arena is highly competitive, meaning it is essential for mobile operators to empower multinational business customers to scale their connected device network with ease. To achieve this, mobile operator alliances are a vital activity, and we will see more of these in 2013 – they will also be more sophisticated as operators get to grips with the dynamics of the industry and how best to make headway.
 
The first deployments of a single global SIM will be occur in 2013
Single SIM solutions will give M2M and connected device service providers access to a global platform for service management, device monitoring & configuration, application development, product support and so on.
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In 2013, we’ll see the first production deployments of Single SIM in action. AT&T has already announced its single SIM initiative (see - Embed once, manage wherever)
 
M2M to start to take off in non-China parts of Asia
In Asia, as globally, the market for emerging wireless consumer devices is poised for a period of substantial growth. Whereas traditionally M2M has been largely driven out of North America and Europe, the last 12 months have seen emphatic growth across Asia as its mobile operators increasingly look to M2M as a significant revenue opportunity. We’ll see more M2M activity coming out of hitherto quiet SE Asia regions – more operators will announce M2M initiatives, and those who have already launched connected devices offerings – like CSL, NTT DOCOMO and Singtel – will announce further projects and customers.
 
LTE will be a key accelerator of M2M developments in certain verticals
With its promise of faster, more capacious mobile networks, LTE will start to play a more important role in M2M. LTE will enable and catalyse advances in the connected car experience, both infotainment and telematics, and in the connected consumer electronics space. Expect to see LTE- driven use cases in the security vertical, like video streaming from surveillance cameras over 4G mobile broadband.

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(1) 20 December 2012 18:00:08 by Francis McInerney

I think this is missing the M2M picture big time.

M2M is a direct function of the rate of cloud inflation which is defined as the number of devices (anything) X the power of the devices on the Moore Curve X the power of the apps supported.

Since all three axes are growing exponentially -- no surprise since the cloud grants universal access to unlimited computing at marginal cost (zero)-- M2M is the largest market in history.

It is a fundamental error, moreover, to attempt to squeeze marginal cost-based M2M into an average cost-based LTE world. As Cisco has made clear many, many times, cellular will absorb an ever smaller percent of M2M traffic. Cellcos will play only a small role in M2M because their business models could never tolerate the loads or the prices, no matter the combination. The math just doesn't work for them.

M2M raises a lot of questions. One of the answers is that we are about to see a new set of carriers. You can be sure that their primary innovations will be financial -- to capture marginal cost-based traffic -- rather than technological. Cell tower- and data warehouse-like shared asset models will supplant vertically integrated operations.

Another answer is not China. The Party cannot outrun the rate of cloud inflation, something M2M will accelerate beyond the imagining, and some kind of social collapse is inevitable there. China today is run like France in 1770. Set your M2M clock to the Moore and Memory-density Curves and you can assess your China risks pretty easily.